Banks and NBFCs are launching festival offers, including lower loan rates, cashback, EMI schemes and GST-linked benefits to tap rising demand ahead of Diwali
India's macroeconomic health is in a "relative goldilocks situation", and although the risk of higher landed oil prices, due to insurance cost surges and closure of choke points due to the brief Israel-Iran war, has receded, it is "too soon to sound the 'all clear' for the rest of the year", the Finance Ministry said on Friday.
The five-year (2015-16 to 2020-21, or FY21) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the overall auto industry is now negative at 2 per cent, against 5.7-per cent growth it saw in the previous five years (from 2010-11 to 2015-16).
Car sales are experiencing a challenging phase with around Rs 60,000 crore worth of inventory lying unsold with dealers.
The country saw a massive year-on-year surge in the demand for electric vehicles, with retail sales of electric two-wheelers rising by 58 per cent, passenger vehicles by 130 per cent, three-wheelers by 82 per cent, and commercial vehicles by 171 per cent in March 2023, according to the data shared by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (Fada). According to a report by JMK Research, the EV segment as a whole grew by 157 per cent during FY23, to 1,180,597 units, from 458,746 units a year ago. Overall, EV sales in March 2023 rose by 82 per cent from the March 2022 figure, the JMK report added.
The two-wheeler segment is, however, still far from its H1FY19 peak of 9.7 million units
Bajaj Auto reported steady results in Q1FY25, with revenue surging 16 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), operating profit registering a growth of 24 per cent Y-o-Y, and margins swelling 20.2 per cent. The profitability was aided by 50 basis points (bps) on the accrual of PLI benefits. The domestic prospects for two-wheelers are healthy, though the response to the newly launched CNG motorcycle is a key monitorable.
Leading automakers Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and Tata Motors on Thursday reported robust sales in March as a shift towards personal mobility and pent up demand continued to help companies push dispatches to their respective retail partners. Toyota Kirloskar Motor, Honda Cars and Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) also reported strong sales last month as compared to the year-ago period, when dispatches were adversely impacted due to the impending transition to BSVI from April 2020 and the nationwide lockdown to contain the coronavirus pandemic. The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India said its domestic sales stood at 1,49,518 units last month. The auto major had reported sales of 76,976 units in March 2020.
Why has the shift from ICE to electric slowed down despite initial enthusiasm?
Auto companies are now grappling with a slowdown in sales, triggered by pent up demand due to the COVID-led lockdown easing a bit and supply-side issues for raw material.
Another trend: A preference for coloured diamonds among brides, who are pairing them with their groom's birthstone. So, along with yellow or white diamonds, they are choosing pink, green, blue sapphires, emeralds or red rubies.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
Durable goods companies and retailers say online sales won't compensate for the fall in offline sales.
Automobile dealers' body FADA on Tuesday expressed concern that the chip shortage issue could derail passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales during the festive season, as automakers are struggling with an adequate supply of vehicles to dealers due to production challenges. Terming semiconductor shortage as a "full-blown crisis", the industry body warned of a lacklustre festive season, especially for the passenger vehicle dealer fraternity, with low inventory levels and non-availability of the fast-moving model variants ahead of the peak festive period.
Since April, India has seen multiple strains of the coronanavirus sweep the nation, upending life and businesses alike. Out-of-home retail and discretionary categories such as durables, auto, fashion, lifestyle, hospitality, food services, travel, and tourism have been the worst-hit as Covid cases remain high, leaving state governments with no option but to curtail mobility and economic activity.
Automobile, apparel and electronics are among sectors that see a sales boost during the festival season, a time when investors expect gains in related stocks. This year could be different: Analysts have factored in all positives and do not expect such stocks to deliver lucrative returns. "Indian households spend across sectors like automobiles, consumer durables, and consumer staples during the festival season.
Despite the robust growth in this country, Apple's India share in its overall global sales remained modest -- constituting 1.5 per cent of its overall turnover of $389 billion in FY23.
After a stellar run on the bourses that saw tractor stocks rise up to 52 per cent, analysts are turning cautious on the sector as muted demand trends may weigh in the near-term. Total volumes in the tractor segment for the last three quarters of the current financial year (9MFY24) have remained weak with VST Tillers, Escorts Kubota, and M&M seeing declines of 21 per cent, 5 per cent, and 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, during the period, amid patchy rainfall, delayed crop harvest, and lower reservoir level. Across industry, total domestic sales volume so far in the current financial year (April '23 to January '24) has declined 5 per cent Y-o-Y, as per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA).
Movement in the stock market this week will largely be driven by global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Equity benchmark indices, which are on a dream run for the past several days, will also track trading in global oil benchmark Brent crude and movement of rupee against the US dollar. "The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is scheduled for mid-September, but before that, the market will be closely watching upcoming US economic data.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
Why is Shailesh Chandra, managing director of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility, not worried about the competition?
With India's gig economy projected to double in size, reaching over 10 million workers in the coming years, Ola Electric unveiled its new line of budget-friendly e-scooters, starting at under Rs 40,000. The market responded positively, with Ola Electric's stock rising by 5.67 per cent, closing at Rs 73.47 on the BSE.
After a brief lull during the pandemic, there is a strong revival in luxury car sales, bolstered by more launches across price bands, replacement demand, ban on old diesel vehicles in the NCR, and 'revenge buying'.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
Leading microchip providers Qualcomm and Intel say the chip shortage might last anything between four months to a year, perhaps even two years, depending on the various product categories - mobile devices, ICE, electric vehicles, appliances, data centres. Prakash Mallya, MD, Intel India and vice president, sales and marketing and communications group, said the spike in demand was huge, and cut across segments from PCs, phones, appliances and auto leading to the shortage.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, quarterly earnings and foreign fund trading activity would dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Besides, movement of rupee against the US dollar and global oil benchmark Brent crude price would also guide the trading pattern in the equity markets. "From a macroeconomic perspective, market participants will be closely observing key events like the upcoming release of the US manufacturing PMI data, US services PMI data and US non-farm payrolls scheduled between August 1 and August 4.
Metal prices from copper to aluminum and tin have shot up by about 7-32 per cent in the past three months.
Axis Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 4 per cent, followed by Asian Paints, SBI, IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, HDFC and Reliance. On the other hand, Bajaj Auto, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, TCS, Bajaj Finserv and Infosys were the gainers.
The headline for corporate profit growth has been very encouraging in the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the combined net profit of listed companies up by 38 per cent year-on-year. However, the earnings distribution has been very lopsided, with most of the growth coming from public-sector oil-marketing companies (OMCs), banks, non-bank lenders, automobile (auto) companies, and cement producers. By comparison, companies from information technology services, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer durables were disappointed, experiencing a sharp slowdown in net sales growth and a relatively muted increase in reported net profit.
Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Mahindra and Toyota reported low single-digit sales growth for the month owing to weak market sentiment
'One cannot take it that the economy has recovered, and the GST payment has increased because of that, or that production is back to January 2020 level.'
India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI. After two years of rapid economic growth in 2021 and 2022, the Indian economy has continued to show sustained strong growth during the 2023 calendar year. India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year.
HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, Kotak Bank, Bajaj Auto and HDFC were among the other laggards.
The BSE IT sector, however, failed to snap a three-day losing streak and closed around 0.14 per cent lower.
India is sceptical that Tesla might import into the country cars made in China. Tesla executives were in India last month and appear to have proposed a factory in the country. But do not be surprised if that does not happen in a hurry.
Macroeconomic data announcement, Omicron situation and global trends will be the major driving factors for the equity market in the first week of the new year 2022, according to analysts. In what turned out to be a historic year, the Indian stock indices went past multiple milestones and the 30-share Sensex made an annual gain of 10,502.49 points or 21.99 per cent in 2021. Religare Broking Vice-President (Research) Ajit Mishra said, "This week marks the beginning of a new month and participants will be closely eyeing some crucial high-frequency data like monthly auto sales, India manufacturing PMI and India services PMI. "Besides, updates on the COVID-19 situation and performance of global markets will also be critical."
RBI's fifth bi-monthly monetary policy meet due tomorrow also kept the investors on their toes.
Stock markets are expected to remain under pressure this week due to the overhang of US presidential polls and uncertainty over global growth due to resurging cases of coronavirus, according to analysts.
Participants are keenly awaiting the rollovers to the next series ahead of the expiry of June F&O.
Shares of rate sensitive sectors such as realty, infrastructure, banking and automobiles ended higher ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) mid-quarter policy review on June 17.
